Democrats retake both chambers of Congress in US midterms; impact on tariffs seen as limited
According to JETRO, Democrats won back majorities in both the US House and Senate in the November 3 midterm elections. The split with the Trump administration is expected to make budget bills and industrial policy harder to pass, but trade policy rests largely with the president, so existing additional tariffs are unlikely to be withdrawn.
Key points
- House (435 seats), as of 1 a.m. US time on Nov. 4: Democrats secured 222 and Republicans 129, above the 218 needed for a majority (before the vote: 214 D, 219 R)
- Senate (100 seats): Democrats secured 52 and Republicans 42, with the 51 needed for a majority (before: 47 D, 53 R)
- Additional tariffs on Japanese goods under Section 301 and sectoral tariffs on autos and steel under Section 232 were imposed without congressional approval; current levels should be assumed for now
Background
The result creates a divided government between Congress and the White House. JETRO expects this to make industrial policy and budget bills harder to pass and to limit the administration somewhat. On Nov. 4 President Trump posted an image reading “VETO” on social media, signalling he is ready to veto bills passed by Congress.
JETRO’s view is that foreign and trade policy leave wide discretion to the president and executive branch, so a major shift is unlikely even with a new balance in Congress.
What it means for shops
For businesses exporting food, general goods or crafts to the US, it is too early to expect tariffs to fall soon. Pricing and contract terms should be built on the assumption that current tariff levels stay for the time being.
What shops should do
- Check the tariff classification and currently applicable rate for each product shipped to the US using official sources
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Summaries are written by Seiichi Studio based on the original releases. Always check the source for the exact details.